Hand Analysis #2: Timing tell and maximizing trips

Seat 1: Lord Kinbote (2,035)
Seat 2: MERIDENKID (965)
Lord Kinbote posts the small blind of 30
MERIDENKID posts the big blind of 60
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Lord Kinbote [4h 4c]
Lord Kinbote raises to 150
MERIDENKID calls 90
*** FLOP *** [6h Ac 9d]
MERIDENKID checks
Lord Kinbote checks
*** TURN *** [6h Ac 9d] [4d]
MERIDENKID checks
Lord Kinbote checks
*** RIVER *** [6h Ac 9d 4d] [3d]
MERIDENKID bets 240
Lord Kinbote raises to 1,885, and is all in
MERIDENKID calls 575, and is all in
Uncalled bet of 1,070 returned to Lord Kinbote
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Lord Kinbote shows [4h 4c] three of a kind, Fours
MERIDENKID mucks
Lord Kinbote wins the pot (1,930) with three of a kind, Fours
MERIDENKID stands up
Lord Kinbote stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1,930 | Rake 0
Board: [6h Ac 9d 4d 3d]
Seat 1: Lord Kinbote (small blind) showed [4h 4c] and won (1,930) with three of a kind, Fours
Seat 2: MERIDENKID (big blind) mucked [Ah 3s] - two pair, Aces and Threes

On the flop, I perceived an hesitation before he checked, so I knew there wasn't any value in c-betting since I was probably beat. On the turn, I got lucky and hit trips four. He checked again, and I mistakingly concluded that he might not have the ace at all, or anything, so I checked again. I really wanted a bet from him. In hindsight, I think it was a mistake to check back, and I will discuss this further towards the end of the article.

First, let me write about my thought process on the river. He gave me exactly what I wanted. Unfortunately, the river also completes the flush, so the question becomes: Is there any value in going all-in on the river? After running the different possibilities in my head, I decided to go with my initial read that he caught something on the flop, probably the ace, and I went all-in.

Here's my reasoning: On the flop, if he had the ace, the nine, the eight-seven for the open-ended straight draw, or trips, than the only hands that beat me now are the ace-high flush, trips 6 and 9. I can't be afraid of the straight if I think my read is accurate. Also, I can argue that he probably would have bet top pair and flush draw on turn since he would want to maximize the value of his hand. So I think I beat his range of possible hands.

In addition, I had been dominating him for the whole game and getting good cards. He had been a short stack for more than 80% of the time, and my image was definitely that of an aggressive player. All of above lead me to believe that he would pay me off often enough to make the move profitable.

What's more, if I lose this hand, I don't lose the game. And if I call the bet and win, he'll have about ten big blinds for a stack, which means that I would be using mostly a push/fold strategy from that point on. Odds are I would be gambling anyway, so gambling on this hand makes even more sense right now.

Here's what I should have done, though:

I should have trusted my initial read, and bet the turn for more value. I knew he was probably holding an ace, or maybe a 9, so if I bet the turn, I'm almost certain he wouldn't respect my bet. He's more likely to think that I'm trying to take down this pot, rather than to think that I have a pair of aces, two pairs, or trips. There's 300 chips in the pot, so betting 150 on the turn makes a lot of sense. It's all about building up the pot for a bigger value bet on the river, not to mention that I would actually have protected my hand against the possible flush and straight draws, if my read happens to be wrong.

To conclude, everything I have written in this analysis is based entirely on my initial read. It really helps me to narrow down his range, and without it, my decision might or might not have been optimal. Every tiny details matter when you're playing poker, and it can dramatically change your perspective on a hand. The better you are at incorporating these small details into your decision making process, the more profitable you'll become in the long run.